The Tampa Bay Rays became the first team eliminated from the 2022 postseason Saturday afternoon. Oscar Gonzalez and the Cleveland Guardians walked Tampa off in Game 2 of the new best-of-three Wild Card Series, and the Rays managed just one run in the two games. It was a solo homer by No. 9 hitter Jose Siri on Friday. Yep, that's a recipe for a quick postseason exit.
More than anything, the Rays were done in by an underpowered offense in 2022. The pitching was not quite as dominant as previous years (ninth in park-adjusted ERA and 13th in WAR), but it wasn't terrible. The offense ranked 21st in runs per game and 25th in home runs. Last year they were second in runs per game and won 100 games. This year they were 21st and won 86 games.
The offense stumbled most down the stretch. Tampa scored no more than one run in nine of their final 17 regular season games, and only four times in those 17 games did they score more than three runs. And those were important games in a postseason race and that could have given the Rays home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series. They weren't playing out the string, and yet they were still unable to muster much offense despite a heightened sense of urgency.
Injuries limited Brandon Lowe, Tampa's top power threat, to 65 games and Wander Franco to 83 games. Ji-Man Choi and Francisco Mejia disappointed, and only three -- three! -- players had double digit home runs: Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes each hit 20 and Choi had 11. Their top four home run hitters (Yandy Díaz had nine) combined to hit two fewer home runs than Aaron Judge.
One reason to believe the Rays would repeat at AL East champions this year was a farm system that was stacked even beyond Franco. Coming into 2022, Baseball America ranked Tampa's system second in baseball behind the Mariners. The system did not provide much impact this past season, however. Look at the highly regarded bats:
| BA system rank | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | HR | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IF Jonathan Aranda | No. 20 | 87 | .192/.276/.321 | 75 | 2 | -0.1 |
IF/OF Vidal Brujan | No. 3 | 162 | .163/.228/.259 | 43 | 3 | -0.6 |
OF Joshua Lowe | No. 2 | 198 | .221/.284/.343 | 83 | 2 | 0.2 |
IF Taylor Walls | N/A* | 466 | .172/.268/.285 | 63 | 8 | 2.5 |
* Baseball America ranked Walls as Tampa's No. 15 prospect last year. He just narrowly exceeded the MLB rookie limits in 2021 and technically was not a prospect in 2022, though he certainly wasn't an established big leaguer.
Brujan and Lowe were top-100 prospects coming into 2022, and while Aranda was the No. 20 prospect in the system in spring training, he had a breakout year and climbed to No. 5 in August. Walls was excellent defensively, but there is a minimum acceptable standard on offense, and he didn't meet it. Simply put, the Rays didn't get enough help from within, especially offensively.
To be clear, this does not mean Aranda, Brujan, et al are busts. Even the most talented players can need a few hundred at-bats to find their way in this league and they're all still so young. There's plenty of time to figure it out. This just means the Rays leaned on their system to plug some holes this past season and it didn't work. In 2022, the kids were net negative.
Where does that leave the Rays heading into the offseason? Here are the three biggest questions facing the organization following their Wild Card Series exit.
Who's getting traded away?
Tyler Glasnow
LAD • SP • #31
ERA1.35
WHIP.90
IP6.2
BB2
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Look, this is the reality of the Rays. They acquire young players, get 3-4 years out of them, then trade them when they begin to get expensive throughout arbitration (or when they reach the big-dollar years of their extension). Last offseason it was Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle. The offseason before that it was Blake Snell. It's what the Rays do.
Tampa had a franchise record $83.9 million payroll in 2022, though it wasn't that far ahead of their payrolls in 2010, 2015, and 2018. It was a few extra million and that's it. So, unless the Rays raise payroll considerably, more cuts will be made. Another few million won't be enough to cover arbitration raises and raises owed to guys on multi-year contracts (Franco, Manuel Margot, etc.).
The most obvious trade candidate: Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery in September and pitched well, and the Rays gave him a two-year, $30.35 million extension in August. The structure of the contract -- $5.35 million in 2023 and $25 million in 2024 -- suggests that Tampa will keep Glasnow next year and trade him during the 2023-24 offseason.
That said, the Rays can't afford Glasnow getting hurt again. Tampa has a poor track record of keeping pitchers healthy (more on that in a bit) and Glasnow suffering another significant arm injury likely means they're stuck with him in 2024, and they'd have to commit more than a quarter of their payroll to an injured player. Keeping Glasnow means assuming a lot of risk.
Glasnow looked very good in his limited action late this year and his track record is very good. Teams want nothing more than a big (6-foot-8) righty with big velocity, big spin, and two out-pitch breaking balls. Glasnow has the tools to be an ace and he's pitched at an ace level at times throughout his career. Tampa would have no trouble finding potential suitors.
Also, big-market teams will like that Glasnow's two-year extension with count only $15.175 million against their luxury-tax payroll in 2023 and 2024, rather than a big $25 million charge in 2024 if they wait until next offseason to get him (luxury-tax payroll is calculated using average annual value of the remaining money on the deal). That makes Glasnow more desirable now.
The Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, and Yankees all immediately jump to mind as potential Glasnow suitors. The up-and-coming Orioles too. Really, every team could use a pitcher like Glasnow, though the two-year term on his contract points to an immediate contender as the best fit. Either way, Glasnow is a prime candidate to be traded this winter.
Díaz is the other core Rays player who stands out as a candidate to be moved in a trade that saves money and restocks the farm system. He is two years away from free agency and he made $2.8 million in 2022. That figures to push his salary into the $5 million range in 2023. Also, Díaz just had what looked like a career year at age 30. This is when the Rays sell.
Point is, the Rays again figure to trade away a core player or two this offseason, because that's what they do every offseason. It is the baseball circle of life in Tampa. Glasnow and Díaz are two obvious candidates to move given their salaries and remaining years of control, but they're hardly the only trade candidates. Who stays and who goes will shape the club's offseason.
Can they figure out how to keep pitchers healthy?
Shane Baz
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For an organization built around a pipeline of top flight pitching, the Rays sure are terrible at keeping pitchers healthy. Shane Baz, baseball's No. 1 pitching prospect coming into 2022, was limited to 27 big-league innings by elbow trouble this year, and he had Tommy John surgery last month. He'll miss 2023. Andrew Kittredge and Brendan McKay had Tommy John surgery earlier in this summer as well. JP Feyereisen hasn't pitched since June. Nick Anderson hasn't appeared in an MLB game since last September. Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos returned from their Tommy John surgeries last month. On and on it goes.
Tampa's pitching injury trouble -- we're talking major arm injuries that require invasive surgery -- has gone on long enough that it's fair to say it's an organizational deficiency. They don't know how to keep pitchers healthy. The Guardians, the team that just sent the Rays home, seem to have figured it out. Their pitchers lost only 498 man-days to injury the last two years, far and away the fewest in baseball. Tampa's pitchers lost 2,756 man-days to injury during that time. That's the most in baseball.
"At some point, we've got to figure out how to not have injuries,"president of baseball operations Erik Neander told the Tampa Bay Times in September.
These days it's not just the teams with the best players that win, it's the teams that keep their best players on the field the most, and that is especially true for a Rays team that won't go out and sign that big free agent. Their margin of error is razor thin and something like losing Baz or Glasnow to Tommy John surgery can derail their season. Pitchers inherently carry injury risk. It's part of the job. But Tampa's pitching injury trouble runs deeper than normal risk. They're doing something wrong and must fix it.
Will there be any progress with the ballpark situation?
The ambitious and never all that likely two-city Montreal/Tampa plan fell apart in January and the Rays are still looking to secure a new ballpark. Their lease at Tropicana Field runs through 2027, so while they still have some time to figure this out, they have hit a lot of roadblocks the last few years. They have more or less exhausted their wiggle room and must begin making real progress toward a new ballpark, whether they stay in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area or relocate elsewhere.
"Here's what I want everyone to understand about today: We remain 100 percent committed to Tampa Bay. Tampa and St. Pete are both great cities. Better than they've ever been as far as I'm concerned," Rays president Brian Auld told the St. Pete Catalyst in August. "... It is inappropriate for me to get into some of the confidential details of those discussions (with local officials about keeping the team in the area), but that's all. That's what we need."
The Athletics have shown that the longer the stadium situation goes unresolved, the more relocation becomes a possibility. The A's hope to get a new ballpark in the Bay Area, sure, but they are openly flirting with Las Vegas too. It won't be long before we hear the Rays connected to Montreal on a permanent basis, or Nashville, or Portland, or San Antonio, or any one of the other great cities eager to host a major league franchise.
A new ballpark won't suddenly turn the Rays into a big-market behemoth (just look across the state at the Marlins) but it does feel vital for the franchise's long-term viability. They've done the best they can to make the Trop more fan-friendly and aesthetically appealing, but there's only so much growth potential there. The Rays have several questions to address on the field. Off the field, making progress toward a new stadium may be the most important piece of offseason business of all.
